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Signs May Point to Android-Apple Settlement
If you're closely following developments in the ongoing "patent warfare" between Apple and Google's Android OEM partners, it probably seems like a peaceful settlement in the patent wars is as far away as it has ever been, if not further. But are there signs that the war may, in fact, be in its closing days? Possibly.
When wars end, it rarely follows a gradual draw down of the conflict; more often the end comes suddenly, either because one side has scored a decisive victory, or because the leaders of both sides have, unbeknownst to their forces until it is announced, arrived at an agreement to cease hostilities. Since neither side has scored a decisive victory, the latter would be a more likely possibility in this case.
Tim Cook has made it clear that he doesn't have the same stomach as Steve Jobs for using patents as an instrument of vengeance on Apple's opponents. There have been talks between Apple, Google, and the various Android OEM partners over deals to settle the patent warfare under Cook's tenure, and while none have yet reported success, it's clear that Cook's Apple is much more willing to settle the dispute through licensing.
In addition, the potential costs for Apple are growing by the day. iPhones have already lost push email capabilities in Germany; Google is sitting on numerous patents and patents pending acquired from Motorola, IBM, and others or filed by Google itself (like Android's notification center).
And Android's OEM partners are not only aggressively acquiring patents, but aggressively filing patents, any of which might become new and potent weapons in the patent war. If Google et al. were to unload some of these patents onto non-practicing entities (i.e. patent trolls in the pure sense), Apple might even face lawsuits from entities they can't sue back.
Even Apple's investors are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with these risks, as well as the risk that each time Apple loses a patent claim, or worse has a patent invalidated, it weakens their IP Portfolio against future competition by Android or other competitors.
In addition, Apple is facing the potentially embarrassing situation of having to make a public apology to Samsung in the U.K. for claiming infringement and losing at trial, effectively giving Samsung free advertising.
Several courts and even the U.N. are signaling their impatience with these continuing legal procedures between Apple and Android's OEM partners. But, Apple has been waging this war too long and too aggressively to simply throw up its hands in surrender: they will need an appearance of victory.
I believe there may be signs that Google and partners recognize this, and are starting to take steps to give Cook the appearance of victory he needs to justify an end of hostilities, without surrendering their own ambitions in the process. On the one hand, we have Samsung strangely removing the unified web/local search from the international variant of the Galaxy SIII, despite the fact that Apple hasn't yet attacked this version of the SIII in court.
This might simply be to cut Apple off at the pass before they try, and before SIII users become overly accustomed to it (the feature was first introduced in Android 4.0, which a small minority of users to date are enjoying), but what if it signals something else? Could Google and partners be aggressively removing the feature from at least some some of their devices as a concession to Apple, or a way to reduce the costs they might owe Apple for a licensing agreement, at least on some of the more expensive (or less profitable) Android devices?
Yesterday Motorola delayed a splash test of Android 4.1 on the Motorola Xoom, and leaks now suggest that the Xoom may receive an Android update (JRO03H) newer than what is currently available on the Nexus 7 (JRO03D). The N7 will presumably receive the same update, and it could be that Google simply wants to keep its two "pure" Android tablets in sync. But while the leaked changelogs don't indicate that local search will be a casualty of the update, neither did Samsung's Galaxy SIII update (a rude surprise for some).
When Google signaled that it would team with Samsung on a "legal strategy" against Apple following the recent Galaxy Nexus injunction, Samsung indicated confidently that they expected to reach a settlement agreement soon with Apple. Many interpreted this as a purely offensive strategy that might force Apple's hand, but what if the strategy was more conciliatory rather than simply offensive?
Google and partners might be combining a stronger offensive strategy with a greater flexibility on Apple's terms, choosing (perhaps selectively, on a device-by-device basis) to license or omit certain non-essential Android features in exchange for an ultimate cease fire.
In exchange, they might concede certain advantages of their own. Apple might gain the right, once again, to implement push emails in Germany, for example, or win a pledge not to sue them for infringement whenever Google's notification center patent gets approved, or to allow Apple to implement facial unlock (whose patent is held by HTC) on Apple devices, etc...
None of these developments definitely indicate a secession of hostilities is pending, but where there is smoke, there is usually fire somewhere nearby. A mutual cease fire could benefit both sides, freeing them to spend more time and resources on innovation and less on litigation and patent acquisitions, while drawing clearer boundaries of differentiation between the two, and would benefit consumers who would no longer face losing valuable software features or actual bans on their devices.
Only time will tell what happens, but the time for settlement is sooner rather than later. The longer this conflict goes on the less each side wins, the more each side stands to lose, and the more consumers are placed in the crossfire of this ongoing "Clash of the Tech Titans". Maybe it's finally time to, as the old saying goes, "Give peace a chance."
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